Around the world in eighty days - infections jet around the world

Description: Around the world in eighty days - infections jet around the worldResearch Field: Immunobiology and Infection Biology/MedicinePathogens that cause epidemics have an easy time of it in a globally networked world. For example, in 2003, the respiratory infection, SARS, spread throughout the world in only a few weeks. But exactly how do such hazardous germs disperse around the world and where are the particularly critical points in their dissemination? Mathematicians and physicists at the Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization in Göttingen have now developed, for the first time, a new mathematical model that can simulate how pathogens travel around the world. Their model is based on the SARS virus. In designing their simulation, the scientists also drew on historical information regarding the spread of other highly contagious pathogens during past epidemics, as well as on data regarding the behavior of infections. Above all, however, they focused on today’s international commercial air travel network, closely scrutinizing the flow of passengers internationally. In their model, the scientists took into account over two million flights a week between the 500 largest airports. And they were ultimately able to confirm that their simulation strongly corresponds with the actual spread of the SARS virus.In the future, such models will be used for other dangerous epidemics, both old and new, such as tuberculosis or the new "killer flu" looming on the horizon caused by a "super virus." Such simulations would not only be useful for predicting how quickly such infectious diseases are spreading and what regions are particularly in danger, but epidemiologists could also, above all, test in advance how successful their planned control and vaccination strategies would be. For example, in Frankfurt, with its very busy international airport, the model could be used to possibly help stop the spread of a hazardous new pathogen early on. This is why epidemiologists at the competency center for highly infectious diseases in Frankfurt are particularly interested in this model.Copyright: © Deutsche WellePublished at ScienceStage.com in cooperation with the Max Planck Society.Involved Institutes: Max-Planck-Institute for Dynamics and Self-OrganizationMax Planck Institute for Infection Biology