The revolt in Syria: Not so easy

The uprising against Bashar Assad presents a trickier conundrum than previous Arab upheavalsTHE frightening spiral of violence in Syria and the determination of its ruler, Bashar Assad, to crush peaceful opposition are a bleak reminder of how far the Arab spring still has to go before summer arrives—and how easily the region’s hopeful mood could turn wintry again (see article). Syria, unlike Libya, is a hub of the Arab world. If it were to embrace a democratic future, the beneficial regional impact would be enormous. Conversely, a successful reimposition of Mr Assad’s iron rule would give succour to all Arab despots. Unfortunately, the West has no simple way to ensure that the forces of good will prevail. It can help in the margins by encouraging the opposition and putting sanctions on Mr Assad’s regime. But Syria is primarily a challenge for the Syrians themselves, with help from their Arab and Turkish neighbours. Syria is a hub of influence by virtue of its geography, history and the canniness—plainly on the wane—of its leaders. It is neither rich, having only modest amounts of oil, nor especially populous, with some 22m inhabitants. Despite some tepid reforms, most of its economy remains stuck in a dirigiste impasse. Its army, though crucial to Mr Assad’s survival, is not powerful in global terms, having been serially swatted over the years by its Israeli neighbour. ...