Publication year: 2011Source: Energy Policy, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 5 May 2011Boqiang, Lin , Ya, Wu , Li, ZhangThe study evaluates the energy saving potential of the Chinese steel industry by studying its potential future energy efficiency gap. In order to predict the future energy efficiency gap, a multivariate regression model combined with risk analysis is developed to estimate future energy intensity of China's steel industry. It is found that R&D intensity, energy saving investment, labor productivity and industry concentration are all important variables that affect energy intensity. We assess the possible measures as to how China's steel industry can narrow the energy efficiency gap with Japan by means of scenario analysis. Using Japan's current energy efficiency level... Highlights: ► The energy saving potential of the Chinese steel industry is evaluated. ► A multivariate regression model combined with risk analysis is developed. ► R&D, energy saving investment, labor, and structure affect energy intensity.► The energy saving potential of China's steel industry would fall to zero in 2020.► Future policy for energy conservation in China's steel industry are assessed.