Environmental and economic effects of the Copenhagen pledges and more ambitious emission reduction targets

Publication year: 2011Source: Energy Policy, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 20 April 2011Everett B., Peterson , Joachim, Schleich , Vicki, DuschaA multi-region, multi-sector dynamic computable general equilibrium model is applied to explore the economic and welfare effects of the pledges submitted by developed countries (Annex I countries) and major developing (non-Annex I) countries for 2020 under the Copenhagen Accord. In addition to analyzing scenarios reflecting the upper and lower bounds of the Copenhagen Pledges, one additional policy scenario where Annex I countries as a group reduce CO2-emissions by 30% in 2020 compared to 1990 levels, and where major non-Annex I countries reduce CO2 emissions 15% below baseline, is also analyzed. Economic effects are measured as changes in GDP compared to... Highlights: ► Copenhagen pledges are not ambitious in terms of global CO2-emission reductions. ► Copenhagen pledges are not costly in terms of global GDP or welfare losses. ► Reductions in GDP and welfare in 2020 are not evenly distributed across regions.► Major non-Annex I countries face relatively larger reductions in GDP compared with Annex I countries.► Copenhagen pledges do not result in large amounts of carbon leakage.